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Visualized: Mid-Year Interest Rate Cut Forecasts for 2024

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See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

This bar graphic shows forecasts for interest rate cuts in 2024 across institutions.

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Mid-Year Interest Rate Cut Forecasts for 2024

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Today, many institutions are trimming back their rate cut expectations given strong labor market data and slow progress on inflation.

At the beginning of 2024, several banks forecasted five or more interest rate cuts over the year, while the median projection for Federal Reserve policymakers was three quarter-point cuts by fiscal year-end in March. Now, it has pared this back to one rate cut this year.

This graphic shows mid-year interest rate forecasts, based on institution reports via Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal.

Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates This Year?

Below, we show interest rate forecasts across 21 institutions as of June 2024:

Forecasted Rate Cuts
in 2024
Number of Institutions
as of June
Number of Institutions
as of April
Names of Institutions
0 bps31Jefferies, Mizuho, Societe Generale
25 bps80Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas,
Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan,
LH Meyer, RBC
50 bps71Evercore ISI, Goldman Sachs, Nomura,
Oxford Economics, TD Securities, UBS,
Wells Fargo
75 bps29Citigroup, Morgan Stanley
100 bps15MUFG
125 bps03N/A

Overall, more than half of the institutions seen in the above table anticipate the first rate cut to take place in September.

Citigroup, for example, is forecasting quarter-point rate cuts in September, November, and December. In June, the bank scaled back their projections, which were previously calling for four cuts beginning in July. A key indicator that the bank is watching is the unemployment rate, which slowly increased to 4% in May, up from 3.9% a month earlier. It also expects inflation to continue cooling over the coming months.

Like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Nomura see the first rate cut taking place in September.

In more of a hawkish camp, JP Morgan anticipates the first cut to be in November due to continued momentum in the labor market. This year, the bank has shifted from three interest rate cuts to one, citing that job weakness may take several months to play out.

Today, many banks are aware that while inflation has moderated, the Fed is keeping a close watch on future inflation risks. As of May, inflation stands at 3.3%, falling for two consecutive months after trending upward in early 2024.

U.S. interest rates have remained at 5.25-5.50% since July 2023, sitting at their highest level in 23 years. Yet, despite higher borrowing costs, it is taking longer than anticipated to beat inflation or dampen consumer spending. Part of the reason is that many people and corporations locked in low interest rates seen during the pandemic, and the impact of higher interest rates hasn’t fully begun to bite.

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Energy

5 Ways Nuclear Can Power The Future

As global electricity demand rises, nuclear power stands out as a leading solution to help ensure a stable and low-carbon energy future.

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The preview image for an infographic showing 5 reasons nuclear power is best suited to meet growing electricity demand.

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The following content is sponsored by Range ETFs
  An investment in any ETF involves significant risk.

Visualized: 5 Ways Nuclear Can Power the Future

Global electricity consumption from data centers, cryptocurrencies, and artificial intelligence (AI) is poised for a dramatic leap, projected to nearly double between 2022 and 2026. 

This surge highlights the ever-growing need for reliable and sustainable energy solutions to power our increasingly digital world.

Created in partnership with Range ETFs, this infographic highlights five reasons why nuclear power may be best suited to meet this growing demand, using data from various sources such as the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Nuclear Power is…

Data centers and AI systems require substantial and uninterrupted electricity to power their computing and cooling infrastructure. Here’s how nuclear power can be a solution:

1. Low Carbon

Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power generates electricity without emitting greenhouse gases. And because nuclear plants have long operational lives, their lifecycle emissions are comparable to renewable sources such as wind and solar, according to the UN Economic Commission for Europe, making it a crucial player in the fight against climate change.

2. Flexible

Advancements in nuclear technology have led to the development of smaller, more versatile reactors called small modular reactors (SMRs). These compact reactors can be located virtually anywhere, including right next to data centers. This flexibility reduces transmission loss and ensures a more efficient delivery of power where it is most needed.

3. Dependable

Data centers require uninterrupted power that intermittent energy sources, such as wind and solar, cannot consistently meet. 

Nuclear power, on the other hand, is a dispatchable energy source, which means it can be quickly turned on and off to meet electricity demand in real time. This makes it incredibly dependable and fit for powering energy-hungry data centers. 

4. Safe

Despite common misconceptions, nuclear power is one of the safest forms of electricity.

Energy SourceDeaths per TWh of electricity production
Coal24.62
Oil18.43
Natural Gas2.82
Hydropower1.3
Wind0.04
Nuclear0.03
Solar0.02

The death rate per terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity produced from nuclear power is significantly lower than it is for coal, oil, and natural gas. Moreover, modern reactor designs, such as SMRs, now integrate advanced safety features that surpass even those of traditional nuclear reactors, further minimizing risks.

5. Optimal

Nuclear power has the highest capacity factor out of all other common electricity sources. This means that the ratio of its actual electricity output to its maximum possible output is very high. 

In other words, nuclear power operates at full capacity 93% of the time, whereas geothermal, the energy source with the second-highest capacity factor, operates at full capacity 71% of the time. Natural gas comes in third place, with a capacity factor of 54%.   

Nuclear’s high capacity factor means it can consistently meet large-scale electricity demands, making it an ideal solution for powering the growing number of data centers and AI operations.

The Resurgence of Nuclear Power

The rapid growth of AI and data centers is driving a resurgence of interest in nuclear power. Industry leaders and technology companies are investing in nuclear projects across the U.S. and beyond, recognizing its potential to provide a reliable, sustainable energy source. 

As the demand for electricity continues to rise, nuclear power stands out as a leading solution to help ensure a stable and low-carbon energy future.

Consider investing in the bright future of nuclear power. 

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