Economy
You’re Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Global Flight Capacity
You’re Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Flight Capacity
It’s not an exaggeration to say that the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into a tailspin.
As the number of new cases continues to surge in parts of the world, numbers are beginning to decline in others as public health officials and governments tirelessly work to slow the contagion and reach of the virus.
The potent combination of trip cancellations and country-specific restrictions on international flights has had a staggering impact on the $880 billion global airline industry. Today’s visualization highlights data from the OAG Aviation Worldwide, which tracks how global flight capacity differs from last year’s numbers.
Note: this post has been updated on April 7, 2020 to reflect the latest data.
Asia Faced the First Hard Landing
Nearly all countries have some type of travel advisory in place, with many encouraging people to avoid non-essential travel even before COVID-19 was officially considered a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The earliest impacts of these were felt in February, as flight capacity in and out of China dropped sharply around Lunar New Year. Also, the country’s sharpest year-over-year drop was recorded on February 17, 2020, with a 71% drop in flights compared to the same date in 2019. However, there’s some good news: life in China is slowly returning back to normal, as Wuhan eases its lockdown after almost two and a half months.
Flight capacity for Hong Kong, which was already seeing its traveler numbers declining due to months-long protests, continues its slump. As of April 6, 2020, scheduled flights were down by an immense 92.3% compared to 2019—the most of any Asian jurisdiction represented in the data.
India showed one of the most drastic declines, from 1.8% down to -68% on March 30, 2020. This resulted from a 21-day lockdown order on March 24, 2020—with only four hours of notice for its 1.3 billion citizens.
Monitoring the Situation Elsewhere
Meanwhile in Europe, Italy saw a 22% drop in flights coinciding with the announcement of a national lockdown March 9, 2020. Now that the situation has intensified, flights to and from Italy have plummeted 89% from their normal rates.
Germany and Spain are seeing the highest declines in scheduled flights worldwide, with approximately 92.6% less capacity as of April 6, 2020. Flight capacity in the region has plummeted thanks to widespread restrictions.
On March 11, 2020, the U.S. enforced a 30-day ban on travelers from the Schengen Area, a free-travel zone consisting of 26 countries in Europe, and has since extended to include the UK and Ireland. As a result, U.S. flight capacity is beginning its descent, dropping 45.2% by April 6, 2020 as the ban may be extended, and to even more countries.
Meanwhile, as of March 17, the U.S.-Canada border is closed for all non-essential travel. This follows a previous announcement from the Canadian government that it would be curbing entry to only Canadian citizens, family members, permanent residents, diplomats, and Americans.
Broadly speaking, countries around the world are taking similar actions to limit the spread of the virus and “flatten the curve”:
Measure Taken | Example Countries* |
---|---|
Suspending flights from specific countries | 🇺🇸United States, 🇹🇷Turkey |
Returning citizens must enter through specific airports | 🇨🇦Canada, 🇺🇸United States |
Mandatory screening | 🇮🇹Italy, 🇧🇴Bolivia |
14 day self-quarantine | 🇮🇱Israel, 🇬🇷Greece |
Complete closure of borders | 🇬🇹Guatemala, 🇵🇪Peru |
*As of March 17, 2020
More Turbulent Times Ahead?
As both COVID-19 and the global response to it continues to evolve, here are the largest flight capacity reductions across different regions in the past few weeks, compared to a baseline from Jan 20, 2020:
Region | 20 Jan 2020 Flights | 23 Mar 2020 Flights | 30 Mar 2020 Flights | 06 Apr 2020 Flights | % Change (6 Apr vs 30 Mar) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Europe | 18,606,424 | 7,595,264 | 3,840,536 | 2,476,034 | -35.5% |
North America | 22,644,121 | 22,236,625 | 17,221,751 | 11,658,243 | -32.3% |
Eastern/Central Europe | 3,701,241 | 1,176,139 | 1,930,546 | 1,393,600 | -27.8% |
Central America | 2,444,383 | 2,040,677 | 1,548,458 | 1,135,163 | -26.7% |
Upper South America | 1,737,713 | 1,011,930 | 673,016 | 513,056 | -23.8% |
Southeast Asia | 10,866,623 | 6,177,093 | 4,810,945 | 3,856,977 | -19.8% |
South Asia | 5,160,958 | 4,245,635 | 1,538,918 | 1,371,156 | -10.9% |
Middle East | 4,930,030 | 2,580,466 | 1,760,809 | 1,619,546 | -8.0% |
Northeast Asia | 25,278,594 | 13,782,879 | 12,465,267 | 11,730,667 | -5.9% |
Source: OAG
Naturally, the economic impact on airlines has been immense. Many airlines worldwide face the threat of bankruptcy in coming months, if these declining trends continue. To hedge against these domino effects of the outbreak, U.S. airlines are requesting upwards of $60 billion in bailouts and direct assistance from the government.
COVID-19 is throwing everything up in the air—including the fate of airline companies. It’s not yet clear when these stringent travel restrictions may be lifted, but one can only hope that these airlines do not have to continue to weather the storm much longer.
Economy
G20 Inflation Rates: Feb 2024 vs COVID Peak
We visualize inflation rates across G20 countries as of Feb 2024, in the context of their COVID-19 pandemic peak.
How Far Have Inflation Rates Fallen Across the G20?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
A major economic consequence that arose in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic was high inflation. In many countries, inflation rates reached double-digits, which is significantly higher than the 2-3% typically targeted by central banks.
Generally speaking, an extended period of fast rising prices is not optimal because it erodes the purchasing power of money. This makes everyday essentials like groceries, rent, and gas more expensive.
To see how inflation is currently faring, we’ve visualized annual inflation rates across G20 countries as of February 2024, in the context of their pandemic peak. This data was sourced from Trading Economics and can also be found in the table below.
Country | Inflation (%, Feb 2024) | Inflation (%, COVID peak) | Date of Peak |
---|---|---|---|
🇦🇷 Argentina | 276.0 | -- | -- |
🇹🇷 Turkey | 67.1 | 85.5 | Oct 2022 |
🇷🇺 Russia | 7.7 | 17.8 | Apr 2022 |
🇿🇦 South Africa | 5.6 | 7.8 | Jul 2022 |
🇮🇳 India | 5.1 | 7.8 | Apr 2022 |
🇧🇷 Brazil | 4.5 | 12.1 | Apr 2022 |
🇲🇽 Mexico | 4.4 | 8.7 | Sept 2022 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 4.1 | 7.8 | Dec 2022 |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 3.4 | 11.1 | Oct 2022 |
🇺🇸 United States | 3.2 | 9.1 | Jun 2022 |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 3.1 | 6.3 | Jul 2022 |
🇫🇷 France | 3.0 | 6.3 | Feb 2023 |
🇨🇦 Canada | 2.8 | 8.1 | Jun 2022 |
🇯🇵 Japan | 2.8 | 4.3 | Jan 2023 |
🇪🇸 Spain | 2.8 | 10.8 | Jul 2022 |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 2.8 | 6 | Sept 2022 |
🇩🇪 Germany | 2.5 | 8.8 | Nov 2022 |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | 6.2 | Jun 2021 |
🇮🇹 Italy | 0.8 | 11.8 | Oct 2022 |
🇨🇳 China | 0.7 | 2.8 | Sept 2022 |
Notes: Spain is a permanent guest of the G20. Australia’s latest inflation rate is as of Dec 2023.
Unlike other G20 nations, Argentina’s inflation rate has only gone up since the pandemic ended. This is largely due to the country’s history of printing money to compensate for government overspending.
One area hit particularly hard is food prices. According to a local consultancy, the price of beef to consumers rose by 40% to 70% between July to August 2023.
Learn More About Inflation in 2024
If you want to see more graphics on inflation, check out this global map that visualizes inflation forecasts for every country in 2024.
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